Baseline Hepatitis B Virus DNA Level is a Promising Factor for Predicting the 3rd Month Virological Response to Entecavir Therapy: A Study of Strict Defined Hepatitis B virus Induced Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND Cirrhosis is a common complication of chronic hepatitis B. It remains unclear if viral and biochemical parameters at baseline affect virological response to entecavir and therefore warrant investigation. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the efficacy of entecavir therapy by monitoring virological response at the end of the 3 rd month of treatment and try to figure out whether baseline factors could help predict it in a cohort of hepatitis B virus (HBV) compensated cirrhosis patients and to determine the cut-off value of a predicting parameter. METHODS A total of 91 nucleos(t)ide-naïve patients with HBV induced cirrhosis (compensatory stage) were enrolled in a prospective cohort. HBV DNA and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) were tested at baseline and monitored every 3-6 months after starting therapy. RESULTS Of all 91 patients, the median follow-up time was 12 (9-24) months. Overall, 64 patients (70.3%) achieved virological response in the 3 rd month. Univariate analysis showed that the 3 rd month virological response can be predicted by baseline HBV DNA levels (P < 0.001, odds ratio [OR]: 2.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.44-3.15), ALT value (P = 0.023, OR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00-1.01) and hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) negativity (P = 0.016, OR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.11-0.80). Multiple regression analysis showed baseline HBV DNA level was the only parameter related to full virological response. Higher baseline HBV DNA strata indicated a higher probability that HBV DNA remains detectable at the 3 rd month (P = 0.001). Area under receiver operating characteristic curve for determining the 3 rd month virological response by baseline HBV DNA was 77.6% (95% CI: 66.7-85.2%), with a best cut-off value of 5.8 log 10 . CONCLUSIONS Baseline HBV DNA, HBeAg negativity, and ALT were independent factors contributing to virological response at the 3 rd month. Further, multiple regression showed that HBV DNA level was the only parameter predicting full virological response as early as the 3 rd month, in this cirrhosis cohort.